October 2012 RSS Feed

Found 13 blog entries for October 2012.

I am sure most of you have seen the various news accounts of the breadth of the devastation as reports begin to come in as to the extent of the storm’s impact on many of the areas in the Northeast.    This will more than likely have a greater economic impact in dollars than Hurricane Katrina in the New Orleans area.   The Governor of New York said the island of Manhattan is only a few feet above sea level.   Obviously experiencing a storm surge in excess of 15 feet is going to be pretty impactful.  If any of you have had the pleasure of visiting New York and ridden their subway system, you may have noticed, a good portion of their electrical grid is within the subway system.  Salt water is not exactly a great combination  with electrical lines which has…

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The equity and bond markets remain closed today.  Mortgage loan rates cannot be locked in with any major investor.  There are a smattering of a few retail shops that are publishing a rate sheet today,  but this pricing is going to be worse by at least .50 to .75% as they are gambling the market will not exceed this when it opens tomorrow.   That kind of prevent pricing is not going to be helpful to anyone.


We expect the market (interest rates) to open worse in the AM.  Why?  Because everyone has securities to sell because of their loan sale activity being curtailed for the last few days.  Basically, this means Traders need “to cover their bets.”  Tomorrow morning will be volatile and while I am sure many of you have loans to lock in, you may want to…

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OOPS, THEY DID IT AGAIN!... "They" are corporations reporting Q3 earnings. And just like the week before, those earnings on the whole failed to impress investors, who sent all three stock indexes down. With solid companies reporting basically negative revenue growth, Wall Street interpreted that as an indicator the global economy is slowing down. For the U.S. economy, the first estimate of Q3 GDP growth came in at a very modest 2.0% annual rate. The Fed policy statement added, "growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated."

Durable goods orders headed up 9.9% in September, bouncing back after their steep drop in August. But the Richmond Fed index, tracking mid-Atlantic manufacturers, dropped to –7 in October from +4 the…

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INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... The rest of the economy may be barely moving forward, but there's clearly some action in the housing market. New single-family home sales were up 5.7% for September and up 27.1% over a year ago. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of 389,000 units is the strongest sales pace since April 2010. The median sales price was $242,400, up almost 12% versus a year ago. 145,000 new homes were on the market, a 4.5 months' supply at the current sales rate, down from a record 12.1 months in January 2009. 

Following this news, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Pending Home Sales index was up 0.3% in September after a 2.3% August decline. This measure of contracts signed on existing homes is up 14.5% over a year ago, posting
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INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... If Apollinaire were alive today (he died in 1918), he might suggest we pause now and be happy, given that September Housing Starts were up 15% (11% for single-family starts) to an 872,000 annual rate. From a year ago, starts are up 34.8%, as builders are starting homes at the fastest pace since July 2008. Building permits for future construction were up 11.6% in September to an 894,000 annual rate. The total number of homes under construction is up 21% over a year ago, gaining 13 months in a row, which hasn't happened since the building boom of 2003–2004.

No wonder the NAHB index of builder confidence went to 41, its highest level since mid-2006. But until the index goes above 50, builders who say they're confident remain…
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As stocks went south, bonds should have gained ground but were kept in check, some say because of inflation concerns following a 1.1% hike in September wholesale prices. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week down just .08 to $106.19. National average mortgage rates barely edged up from their historic lows of the week before. Demand for purchase loans was up 2% for the week and up 12% from a year ago.

Homes For Sacramento
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INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Opportunity is finally popping up all over the U.S. housing market. Confirmation of that fact came last week in the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which contains anecdotal findings on the state of the economy in the Fed's 12 districts across the country. The Beige Book noted that even though economic activity has only modestly improved in recent months, the housing market has shown "widespread improvement."

Industry observers echo this, saying the only economic bright spot is the rise in some home prices, although this has largely been tied to the drop in supply  In fact, a new report from a major online real estate market put the number of homes for sale nationwide down 19.4% for the year ending September 30. In addition, 
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